@Article{AssisAguiVonRNobr:2022:PrFuFo,
               author = "Assis, Talita Oliveira and Aguiar, Ana Paula Dutra de and Von 
                         Randow, Celso and Nobre, Carlos Afonso",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade de S{\~a}o Paulo 
                         (USP)}",
                title = "Projections of future forest degradation and CO2 emissions for the 
                         Brazilian Amazon",
              journal = "Science Advances",
                 year = "2022",
               volume = "8",
               number = "24",
                pages = "eabj3309",
                month = "June",
             abstract = "In recent years, the area affected by forest degradation in the 
                         Brazilian Amazon has frequently been higher than deforestation. 
                         From August 2006 to July 2019, the degraded area totaled 194,058 
                         km2, representing almost two times the 99,630 km2 deforested in 
                         the same period. The impacts of degradation include biodiversity 
                         loss and changes in the carbon stocks, affecting the CO2 balance 
                         and future climate changes. This paper aims to explore 
                         socioeconomic and environmental factors that influence forest 
                         degradation, project future scenarios, and assess the impact on 
                         the regional carbon balance, combining forest degradation and 
                         deforestation-related processes (clear-cut deforestation and 
                         secondary vegetation dynamics). We show that, while net CO2 
                         emissions from 2020 to 2050 are 0.74 Gt CO2 in the Sustainable 
                         scenario, this value reached 22.63 Gt CO2 in the Fragmentation 
                         scenario, an increasingly plausible scenario given the recent 
                         trends in the region.",
                  doi = "10.1126/sciadv.abj3309",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abj3309",
                 issn = "2375-2548",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "sciadv.abj3309.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "28 abr. 2024"
}